Trading Update 8th June 2025

Global Oil Market Overview: Turbulent First Week of June

The first week of June 2025 saw a rollercoaster in the oil market. Brent crude kicked off the month near four‑year lows, buoyed by OPEC+ announcing a modest supply increase. Despite a global output surge, prices remained supported by supply disruptions and geopolitical tension. Traders navigated a complex environment where oversupply and unexpected events played equal parts.

Brent Crude Price Movements: A Balancing Act

On 1st June, Brent crude dipped to around $79.60 per barrel, reflecting persistent oversupply. By 4th June, it edged up to $84.75 as wildfires in Alberta knocked out about 7% of Canada’s output. On 6th June, Brent hovered near $85.07, nudged higher by supply anxieties, only to close the week back around $79.60—a net drop of roughly 2.5%. This tug‑of‑war between production increases and disruptions shaped investor sentiment.

OPEC+ Strategies: Shifting from Cuts to Output

OPEC+ officially shifted course, announcing output hikes totalling over 400,000 barrels daily for July. This pivot reflects the waning impact of past cuts and growing non‑OPEC supply. Still, the decision sparked internal tension—some members resisted full compliance. As global policymakers eyed rising US demand, the output boost kept prices capped despite looming supply risks.

Supply Disruptions: Weather, Wildfires, and More

Amid the supply surge, Canadian wildfires provided crucial support. The Alberta blazes halted nearly 7% of national oil production, tightening global supply lines. Lingering Iran nuclear tensions threatened its exports, and fresh US sanctions on Russia added further uncertainty. These unexpected shocks prevented a complete price collapse.

Political Moves in the U.S.: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Pressure

Political currents rippled through markets as the US Senate advanced a bill imposing steep tariffs—up to 500%—on Russian energy imports. That move risked fragmenting alliance energy ties and cutting supply. Meanwhile, President Trump pressed OPEC for cuts even as trade tariffs weighed on industrial demand. These twists fed uncertainty across both oil benchmarks and energy shares.

Stock Market Response: Energy Shares on the Move

Energy stocks showed mixed results. Gulf markets gained ground on Brent’s uptick, boosting regional energy firms. In the US, however, energy shares faced headwinds from tariff jitters and a softening growth outlook. Refinery margins remained strong, but a mixed demand picture kept broader equity flows cautious.

U.S. Crude vs. Global Competition

US light sweet crude underperformed as global supply surged. OPEC+ additions and US producers hitting record output in March overwhelmed export pipelines—outflows fell from 4.0 million bpd in April to 3.8 million bpd in May. Competing grades from Kazakhstan and Guyana grabbed market share. Domestic stock builds also pressured local benchmarks, even as Brent held firmer thanks to overseas disruptions.

Geo‑Risk as Price Insurer

While oversupply dominated headlines, geopolitical risk remained the wild card. Canadian wildfires offered short‑term relief, but broader Middle Eastern friction, Iran’s nuclear fate, and looming US sanctions on Russia kept investors on edge. Any sudden flare‑up could add $5–10 to Brent per barrel overnight.

What Spread‑Betting Traders Should Watch

1. OPEC+ compliance – Will members honour output pledges, or backtrack on cuts?
2. Canadian wildfire recovery – A swift restart could flood the market.
3. US sanctions and tariffs – Escalation could tighten global supply or dent demand.
4. Inventory data – Weekly US stock reports signal demand strength or slack.
5. Economic indicators – Interest‑rate moves and growth forecasts will sway risk appetite in commodities.

Final Thoughts: A Week of Contrasts

The opening week of June brought both oversupply pressure and supply uncertainty. OPEC+ boosted production even as nature and geopolitics intervened. Traders faced shifting currents, with Brent’s up‑and‑down moves showing that even record supply can’t fully suppress prices. For spread‑bettors, the key lies in watching supply commitments against geopolitical risk—and adjusting positions as the balance shifts.

Key Metrics (1–8 June 2025)

• Brent Price: $79.60 → $85.07 → $79.60
• OPEC+ Output: +400k bpd announced for July
• Supply Disruption: Alberta wildfires cut 7% of Canadian output
• Political Events: US Senate sanctions, presidential pressure on OPEC
• US Exports: Fell from 4.0 to 3.8 mb/d
• Stock Markets: Gulf energy shares up; US mixed

Stay nimble: track supply news, weather shocks, political headlines, and inventory stats. Oil remains reactive—and rich in spread‑betting opportunity.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.