Trading Update 2nd November 2025

Oil Market Weekly Update: Brent Crude Steadies Amid Global Political Shifts

Over the week from 26 October to 2 November 2025, Brent crude traded in a narrow band, roughly US$64 to US$67 per barrel. The market showed cautious strength after earlier October weakness, yet it failed to deliver a decisive breakout. Traders closely eyed headlines and data, treating each development as a potential trigger. For spread-betters, this environment favoured short, event-driven trades and tight risk controls rather than large directional wagers.

Volatility spiked around key moments, but overall realised volatility remained below extremes seen in crisis episodes. That pattern rewarded nimble entries and quick exits. Momentum traders found neat day-trade setups around news, while range traders profited from fades close to established support and resistance. The message was clear: trade the catalyst, not the conjecture.

Supply dynamics and inventory picture

Supply remained the dominant structural story. Global crude output stayed elevated as producers maintained or increased flows. At the same time, several regions reported high export volumes, creating sizeable “oil-on-water” inventories. When barrels stack up in storage, prompt prices struggle to gain traction.

Weekly inventory reports also mattered. Commercial stocks in major storage hubs ticked higher at different points in the week. Those builds capped rallies because they signalled that consumption failed to absorb the additional supply. Traders reacted quickly to inventory surprises, often reversing short-term longs. The futures curve continued to show contango in many parts, reflecting the market’s preference to store barrels rather than consume them now.

Demand signals and macro backdrop

On the demand side, growth indicators remained soft. Industrial activity in key economies showed signs of cooling, restraining consumption outlooks. Freight and transport activity offered mixed signals, with regional differences rather than a global uniformity. Even with tentative talk of trade optimism, end-demand did not move decisively.

Currency moves also influenced demand perceptions. A strong US dollar raised the local price for many buyers, softening physical and speculative demand. When the dollar strengthens, dollar-priced commodities like Brent often come under pressure. That currency effect added another headwind for oil bulls, who are already contending with ample supply.

Political and geopolitical drivers

Politics supplied the week’s most tradeable moments. A mix of sanctions talk and diplomatic developments nudged prices higher on specific days. Markets reacted to reports of export restrictions and tentative trade frameworks between major economies. Those headlines sparked short, sharp rallies as traders repositioned ahead of potential shifts in demand or supply.

Despite those events, the broader political picture failed to deliver a sustained supply shock. Commentaries about sanctions or export reroutes remained tentative, and many buyers pursued discounted alternatives. The net effect: politics created volatility but not a durable change in the supply-demand maths. Traders learned to treat political headlines as catalysts for short trades and corrective moves.

How equities reacted this week

Energy stocks generally outperformed during Brent upticks. Integrated oil majors and exploration names rose when geopolitical tensions suggested constrained flows. That link between oil and equities offered spread-bettors helpful pair strategies — long energy, short cyclical sectors.

Conversely, industrials and transport names weakened when demand fears surfaced. Those sectors proved sensitive to growth narratives and inventory prints. The equity divergence created a tactical opportunity: hedge crude exposure by shorting demand-sensitive stocks, thereby reducing portfolio volatility.

Options markets on energy names widened, reflecting higher implied volatility. Traders who favour options found viable strategies in straddles and calendar spreads, especially around scheduled announcements and inventory releases.

Trading tactics that worked best

This week rewarded a handful of clear tactics. First, event-driven momentum entries often nailed intraday moves. Traders who entered quickly after credible headlines and used tight stops captured fast gains. Second, pair trades — long oil or energy stocks paired with short industrials — reduced net directional risk while capturing relative moves. Third, short-term range trades performed well when prices bounced between US$64 and US$67. Fade extremes with strict risk limits proved profitable for disciplined traders.

Longer-term directional positions struggled without a clear trend. The market needed a meaningful catalyst to break out of its range. For spread-betters using leverage, controlling position size mattered more than finding the perfect call. Overleveraged positions suffered from whipsaw moves and margin volatility.

Risk management: rules to follow

Risk management proved decisive. Set a maximum risk per trade, and adhere to it. Use intraday stops during headline volatility and convert to trailing stops if a trade moves in your favour. Avoid leaving prominent leveraged positions open overnight before major data releases or political events. Monitor funding and rollover costs on spread-betting positions; they erode returns on longer holds.

Diversify exposure with pairs or hedges. A long-oil/short-industrial pair reduces sensitivity to pure demand swings and limits outright direction risk. Also, check liquidity in front-month contracts and major energy equities. Liquidity thins during extreme headline moments, so watch for widening bid-ask spreads and slippage.

Technical levels and market structure

Technically, the market respected a support band near US$62–63 and a resistance zone near US$68–70. Short-term breakouts above resistance attracted momentum buyers, while failures around resistance prompted rapid reversals. Pay attention to the futures curve shape: persistent contango signals an oversupplied market and discourages long-carry trades. A shift to backwardation would indicate tighter prompt balances and provide more confidence for trend followers.

Intraday volume confirmed the conviction of moves. Breakouts on poor volume tended to fail. Volume and open interest in futures provided additional validation for sustained trends.

What to watch next week

Key triggers could change the picture. First, weekly US and global inventory releases remain headline-sensitive. Surprise builds could force quick retracements. Second, any formal trade-deal announcement between major economies could boost demand sentiment. Third, watch for credible supply disruptions — whether through sanctions, unforeseen outages, or logistics problems. Fourth, central bank commentary and dollar moves will indirectly influence commodity demand.

Also monitor OPEC+ statements and compliance. Any shift in OPEC+ rhetoric or cuts would attract immediate market attention. Finally, keep an eye on regional refinery turnarounds. Reduced refinery throughput can temporarily lower crude demand, affecting the prompt market.

Practical checklist for spread-betters

1. Trade headlines, but size for whipsaws.
2. Use pair trades to hedge demand risk.
3. Keep stops tight and move to trailing stops on winners.
4. Monitor the futures curve and funding costs.
5. Watch liquidity and set realistic slippage expectations.

Final takeaway for traders

The week to 2 November 2025 confirmed that oil markets currently trade on a knife-edge between surplus and headline risk. Brent hovered in the mid-sixties as supply outpaced demand, yet politics and trade talk provided episodic rallies. For spread-betters, the optimal approach combined event-driven momentum, tight risk management, and hedged positions. In markets that react sharply to each headline, discipline and agility beat conviction. Stay alert, plan for rapid reversals, and let clear catalysts guide your exposure.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.