Trading Update 23rd November 2025

Oil Prices Under Pressure: What Happened This Week

Oil markets entered the week with caution. Brent crude traded in a narrow band around the low-to-mid-$60s per barrel as markets weighed fresh geopolitical developments and looming supply concerns. The conflict between supply growth and demand softness loomed large. At the same time, sporadic disruptions kept traders on alert. That mix created a highly uncertain backdrop — ideal for volatility, but risky for longer-term positions.

By the weekend, Brent had ended close to where it started. Prices saw intra-week swings but no lasting breakout. That flat trend reflected markets wrestling with the risks of oversupply and potential geopolitical shocks. For spread-bet traders, the week offered cautionary lessons: volatility without direction demands tight risk control and a nod to bigger structural forces.

Price swings: why Brent moved — and why it settled

At the week’s outset, Brent held steady as markets reacted to news that a central Russian export hub had resumed loading. The port of Novorossiysk reopened after a suspension caused by drone attacks — a development that suggested Russian flows might return more quickly than expected. That alone reduced the risk premium associated with disruption.

By mid-week, the market tried to rally on supply disruption fears. Some traders speculated that further attacks or sanctions could again curb Russian exports. That tentative optimism pushed Brent temporarily into the mid-$60s. However, by 22 November, sentiment shifted. Growing expectations of rising global supply and hints of easing geopolitical risk dragged Brent back toward the low-$60s. The rebound fizzled as supply fundamentals reasserted pressure.

Energy-linked equities tracked the swings. Producers and service firms saw slight gains during bullish bouts, yet equity gains remained muted amid uncertainty. Trade-volume thinness cemented the week’s caution — stocks and commodities alike stayed on edge.

Geopolitics: supply flow, war-talks, and shifting risk premia

A central driver this week involved shifting expectations around Russian oil exports. The reopening of Novorossiysk signalled that earlier disruptions might be temporary. That dampened fears of a deep supply squeeze and encouraged a more bearish stance on oil. Markets adjusted quickly as traders discounted the risk of previous disruptions.

Another undercurrent came from new optimism around diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Reports suggested growing momentum toward a negotiated settlement. If sanctions ease or oil-flow restrictions are lifted, that would likely increase global crude supply — a development markets have priced in. As a result, risk premia on oil weakened.

What once was bullish for oil — the mere threat of disruption — felt bearish now that stability seemed more likely. That shift in market psychology, from fear to expectation, weighed heavily on price action. For traders, the lesson was clear: oil’s risk premium now depends heavily on perceptions of political risk, making headlines far more influential than seasonal demand expectations or supply forecasts.

Global supply dynamics: non-OPEC output and looming oversupply

Beyond geopolitical drama, structural supply growth remained a pressing concern. Recent data showed global oil supply rising steadily, driven mainly by non-OPEC producers and recovering output in regions previously disrupted.

At the same time, inventories continued to climb. Crude on water increased, and stockpiles in major consuming regions remained elevated — a clear sign that demand failed to absorb the extra barrels. The oversupply narrative held centre stage, notably as leading analysts projected supply growth to outstrip demand again in 2026.

This structural backdrop weighed heavily on sentiment. Traders increasingly viewed any upward move in oil prices as fragile — perhaps beneficial for a quick scalp, but unlikely to sustain a trend. The result: oil traded more like a mean-reverting commodity than a bullish asset driven by scarcity.

Technical bounce: short-term opportunity, long-term caution

Mid-week technical factors triggered a modest bounce. Price charts showed support near the low-$60s, prompting short-covering and a temporary buying surge. For a brief moment, some energy names in the equity markets rallied on hopes of tighter supply.

But the rebound lacked conviction. Volume remained light, and major buyers stayed sidelined. As soon as supply concerns re-emerged, the rally faded. The bounce looked reactive — driven by sentiment swings rather than underlying strength.

For spread-bet traders, such moves offer opportunity: a tightly defined range, clear support/resistance zones, and volatility on news. But they also underscore risk, especially when trading aggressively without strict stops.

Energy equities and broader market impact

The week’s oil volatility rippled through energy equities. Exploration, production and service firms saw small upswings when oil spiked, but sentiment turned cautious as price pressure returned. Some refiners and midstream operators fared worse amid concerns over weak crude prices and thin margins.

Overall, energy-heavy indices underperformed broader markets. Investors tilted toward safer, non-commodity sectors. In such an environment, opportunistic trading — not buy-and-hold — looked more appealing. Traders with flexible capital and tight risk control found better value than longer-term equity holders.

Key catalysts ahead: what traders should watch

The coming weeks promise further volatility. Several key events could direct oil prices sharply:

• Updates on Russian export capacity, especially any disruptions or renewed flow via Black Sea routes.
• Developments in Russia–Ukraine diplomacy. Progress might prompt bearish supply expectations, while a breakdown could revive disruption risk premium.
• Official supply data and inventory reports from major regions — rises could deepen bearish pressure, draws might trigger sharp spikes.
• Statements or production plans from OPEC+ or other heavyweight producers. Any change in output will echo loudly in futures markets.
• Broader macroeconomic data — global demand trends, industrial activity, inflation and interest-rate moves could all sway sentiment toward energy.

Traders should keep a watchful eye on these events, ideally using tight timeframes and clear exit rules.

Trading strategy: balancing nimble moves with structural caution

Given the environment, a mixed approach seems prudent. Short-term, headline-driven trades offer volatility and quick gains. News of disruption or geopolitical tension could trigger trading opportunities.

For medium-term strategies, heed the structural imbalance between supply and demand. Unless a significant supply cut or demand shock materialises, rallies may be fleeting. Use bounce trades as potential fade zones.

Risk management becomes vital. Use disciplined stop-losses, limit position sizes, and be ready to react quickly to sudden news. Spread betting may suit these conditions better than long-term hold positions.

Summary: main takeaways for traders

• Brent crude remained range-bound but volatile; price swings were modest and tied to shifts in geopolitical sentiment.
• The resumption of Russian oil exports and growing hopes for peace drove down the risk premium — pressuring prices.
• Global supply growth and rising inventories reinforced oversupply fears. Structural bearish forces dominated.
• A mid-week technical bounce offered a short-lived rally, but lacked volume or fundamental support.
• Energy equities reflected the same uncertainty: occasional spikes, but broad caution dominated.
• Key upcoming catalysts — geopolitics, production decisions, and supply data — could trigger sharp moves.
• For spread-bet traders, short-term, event-driven trades may offer an opportunity, but medium-term positions look risky without strong supply or demand shifts.

Final thoughts: why this week matters

The week of 16–23 November 2025 highlighted the tension at the heart of today’s oil market. On one side sit fears over oversupply and soft demand. On the other hand, geopolitical developments and disruption risks create intermittent spikes.

For traders, that tension creates opportunity — but only if approached with caution, discipline and a keen eye on catalysts. Spread-bet strategies that exploit volatility may pay off, but only if risk is managed. For longer-term positions, structural realities suggest a muted outlook unless dramatic shifts emerge. Stay alert, track supply signals and be ready to act fast.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.