Trading Update 14th September 2025

Brent Crude Weekly Review: Oversupply and Geopolitics Shape Oil Prices

The global oil market experienced another turbulent week, as a combination of supply growth, political developments, and shifting demand forecasts pushed Brent crude prices up and down. Traders saw volatility driven by OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical flare-ups, and fresh reports from major agencies, all of which shaped short-term trading opportunities.

This period highlighted once again the fragility of the balance between oversupply pressures and geopolitical risks. Spread betting traders in particular had to balance short-term price spikes with the broader bearish trend driven by rising inventories. Let’s break down what happened and how it shaped Brent crude, energy stocks, and market sentiment.

Brent crude oil price movements

Brent crude oil opened the week at around $65.80 per barrel as traders reacted to news that OPEC+ was moving ahead with planned production increases in October. The pace of new supply was slower than earlier anticipated, which prevented a sharper fall at the start of the week.

Mid-week, the market experienced a lift, with Brent climbing to around $67.50 per barrel. This gain reflected heightened geopolitical tensions, with traders hedging against possible supply disruptions in Europe and the Middle East. For spread betting traders, this mid-week bounce provided short-term upside opportunities, although the move lacked strong momentum.

By Thursday, the rally faded. Prices dropped back to around $66.30 per barrel, with concerns about oversupply returning to the forefront. Concerns about weaker US demand and a build-up in global inventories weighed heavily. By the end of the week, Brent crude remained stuck in the mid-$66 range, suggesting that despite geopolitical shocks, the overriding theme of oversupply continues to cap price gains.

Rising supply and oversupply pressure

The most significant headwind for oil this week was clear: supply is rising faster than demand. OPEC+ members have already increased production quotas by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day since April, with further increases planned for the coming months. This additional output is feeding into global inventories and making it harder for prices to sustain upward moves.

The International Energy Agency added to bearish sentiment with a forecast that global supply will expand by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, followed by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. In contrast, demand growth is expected to be less than half that pace. Even with a modest upward revision, consumption is lagging far behind production.

This widening gap between supply and demand leaves the market facing a significant surplus. For spread betting traders, that imbalance points to more opportunities on the short side. Unless production is scaled back or global consumption surprises on the upside, oversupply will remain the defining factor.

Geopolitical risks fuel temporary rallies

Although oversupply is the central story, geopolitics injected volatility into the market. Ukraine launched drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, including export terminals and refineries, raising fresh concerns about supply disruptions. While Russia insisted that its exports remained steady, traders factored in the risk of escalating strikes and potential disruptions to European supply routes.

Elsewhere, the US pushed for tougher sanctions on Russia, while urging European nations to tighten restrictions on energy flows. This added another layer of political uncertainty. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia surprised markets by cutting its October selling price to Asia, signalling a more competitive strategy. This move reinforced expectations of a supply-heavy environment, putting downward pressure on prices in Asia-Pacific markets.

India also made headlines as Prime Minister Modi announced the National Deepwater Exploration Mission, a long-term initiative aimed at boosting domestic oil and gas production. While not an immediate factor, this underscores how new entrants are preparing to add further supply to global markets over the next decade.

These geopolitical events created short-lived bullish moves in Brent crude, but the rallies lacked staying power. For traders, it served as a reminder that while geopolitics drives volatility, fundamentals ultimately determine the longer-term direction.

Impact on stocks and equity markets

Energy stocks reflected the week’s mixed signals. BP saw substantial gains of around 8% after announcing a significant offshore discovery in Brazil. The market interpreted the news as evidence of continued confidence in upstream projects, despite long-term pressures from the climate transition. Other energy majors experienced sympathetic moves higher, but concerns about oversupply muted the broader rally.

In contrast, equities in the Gulf region fell, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Investors worried about geopolitical tensions and the potential impact of oil price competition in Asian markets. These declines highlighted the sensitivity of regional markets to both global price shifts and political instability.

Traders also noted a drop in oil futures trading volumes and open interest. This suggests investors are cautious, taking some profits off the table after recent rallies and waiting for clearer signals. Spread betting traders may read this as a sign that momentum is slowing, making disciplined entry and exit strategies all the more critical.

Trading insights for spread betting

For spread betting traders, the message from this week is straightforward: the bearish supply trend is intact, but geopolitical risks can still drive sharp, temporary rallies. This means there are opportunities for both long and short positions, provided traders remain flexible and alert to breaking news.

Short-term rallies are likely to be capped as long as inventories continue to rise. Oversupply creates a ceiling that resists sustained bullish momentum. Traders looking to go long should treat these as tactical trades rather than long-term positions.

On the other hand, short positions may offer more substantial risk-reward potential, especially if OPEC+ continues with planned production increases. The key is to manage risk carefully—geopolitical shocks can trigger sudden reversals, and tight stop-loss orders are essential.

Monitoring OPEC+ announcements, Saudi pricing strategies, and official stockpile reports will remain crucial for making profitable spread betting decisions in the weeks ahead.

What to watch in the coming weeks

Looking beyond this week, several themes will continue to shape Brent crude and global oil markets:

• OPEC+ production policies – Any sign of slowing or reversing quota increases could quickly change the market tone.
• Inventory reports – Rising US and global stock levels would confirm the oversupply narrative and add downward pressure on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions – Conflicts in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and instability in the Middle East remain wild cards.
• Asian demand signals – Moves from India and China will be watched closely, as these markets are central to global consumption.
• Energy company developments – Exploration announcements, mergers, or supply chain changes can influence investor sentiment in energy stocks.

For spread bettors, staying ahead means combining technical setups with a strong awareness of these fundamental drivers.

Conclusion: A week of volatility and opportunity

Between September 8 and 14, 2025, Brent crude fluctuated between $65 and $67.50 per barrel. The overriding theme was clear: rising supply is weighing on prices, even as geopolitical events inject bursts of volatility. Energy stocks delivered mixed performances, with BP leading the upside while Gulf equities came under pressure.

For spread betting traders, this was a week that demonstrated the importance of flexibility. Oversupply is likely to dominate the medium-term outlook, favouring short strategies. Yet with tensions in Russia, Saudi pricing shifts, and broader geopolitical uncertainty, sharp rallies can occur without warning.

By maintaining disciplined risk management and staying alert to both supply data and political developments, traders can turn volatility into opportunity. The oil market remains a dynamic space, and in weeks like this, it offers fertile ground for well-timed spread betting strategies.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.