Trading Update 31st August 2025

Brent Crude Price Action – Tight Range and Trading Opportunities

Between August 24 and 31, 2025, Brent crude traded in a narrow but meaningful range. Prices oscillated roughly between $67.50 and $68.50 per barrel, on paper that looks quiet. In practice, the week offered clear signals, defined ranges and headline-driven spikes. For spread-betting traders, the action delivered tidy setups and a reminder: calm ranges can still hide sudden, tradable moves. This refined oil market update breaks down the drivers, cross-market ripple effects, and trading edges you can exploit.

Price action and intraday character

Brent started the week at around $67.74 and dipped briefly as the driving season in the northern hemisphere eased. That dip proved shallow. By mid-week, prices nudged toward $68.09 and closed near $68.12 on Sunday. The market felt range-bound, yet headlines nudged momentum in either direction. Traders found that intraday volumes spiked around news flow. Those volume bursts delivered short windows to scalp or to enter trend trades if a breakout developed.

Technically, the market respected a clear support band near $67.50–$67.70. Resistance clustered at $68.50–$68.70. Breaks beyond those zones generated sharper moves. When political headlines tightened supply worries, longs pushed into breakout territory. When demand worries returned, sellers reclaimed the range. That contrast made the week ideal for disciplined spread bettors who prefer clearly defined risk zones.

OPEC+, production and the supply narrative

OPEC+ remained a critical backdrop. The group’s recent decision to increase output earlier in August set a tone. Additional barrels entered the system, putting a lid on any sustained rally. Still, production statements and ministerial remarks kept traders on their toes. Analysts debated whether added supply would fully meet global demand or whether it would amplify an eventual surplus by late 2025.

The mix of rising production and uneven demand created a two-paced market. On supply headlines, prices eased. In response to regional disruptions or sanctions, prices surged. For spread bettors, that meant longer swings were less frequent. Instead, most profitable moves came as short, sharp reactions to geopolitical shifts or unexpected demand cues.

Geopolitics: Ukraine, tariffs and regional supply risk

Geopolitical risk once again shaped sentiment. Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian refining and pipeline infrastructure kept supply worries alive. Those actions interrupted flows and raised the chance of temporary fuel deficits in some export corridors. When markets digested these disruptions, Brent reset higher for short periods.

At the same time, U.S. tariff actions that impacted buyers of Russian oil created trade friction. Markets worried about supply chains and re-routing. India’s stance on Russian purchases added another variable. The country has remained a major buyer, but diplomatic friction with the U.S. over tariffs injected uncertainty into shipping lanes and pricing conventions.

Put simply, geopolitics created asymmetric risk. A shutdown or sanction could quickly remove significant barrels from trade. That dynamic kept a latent premium within the Brent price, even as headline numbers looked modest.

Demand signals and seasonal patterns

End-of-summer demand trends weighed on the market. The northern hemisphere driving season tapered, trimming gasoline and diesel draws in key markets. That seasonal decline dampened headline strength.

At the same time, pockets of demand resilience emerged. China demonstrated periodic strength in industry and transportation, which supported regional crude lifts mid-week. But global demand growth still faces headwinds from higher rates in several economies and slowing industrial activity in parts of Europe.

This tug of war—between seasonal softness and local demand pockets—produced choppy but tradable price action. For spread bettors, the practical takeaway was simple: respect seasonal cycles, but don’t ignore short-term divergence between regions.

Stocks, currencies and cross-asset spillovers

Oil prices fluctuated, rippling into equity and currency markets throughout the week. Energy shares showed mixed performance. When Brent rose on geopolitical headlines, majors and regional oil stocks often rallied. Conversely, when concerns about OPEC+ output or worries about demand dominated, energy equities came under pressure.

Broader indices reacted too. A spike in oil can strain logistics and manufacturing margins, pressuring industrial stocks. At the same time, calmer oil prices helped risk assets stabilise. Traders who paired oil trades with equity hedges could reduce directional exposure and capture relative moves between commodities and stocks.

Currencies acted as a confirming signal. Commodity-linked currencies weakened when oil sentiment cooled, and strengthened on supply-fear rallies. Watching those FX moves allowed spread bettors to time entries with tighter confidence and to construct multi-asset hedges.

Technical levels and practical trading setups

This week provided clean technical reference points. The $67.50–$67.70 support zone offered low-risk buy entries on pullbacks. Conversely, $68.50–$68.70 represented a resistance band where profit-taking often tripped short positions.

A common strategy that worked well involved waiting for a confirmed breakout above resistance on substantial volume. When that occurred, traders could add momentum positions with stops just below the breakout level. Alternatively, range traders found success fading at the edges with tight stops. Intraday traders also profited from reversion plays when the price returned to the range mid-session.

Volatility management proved critical. Spreads widened around headline spikes, so position sizing and stop placement mattered more than usual. Keep stops tight relative to normal volatility and size positions to allow for slippage during news events.

Market structure: inventories, refining and freight

Inventories and refining output remained part of the story. Weekly petroleum stock data showed modest builds in some regions and draws in others. Those mixed signals translated into the choppy range. Refinery outages or maintenance in specific hubs tightened certain product markets and pushed crude in short bursts.

Freight and shipping costs also played a quiet role. Re-routing due to sanctions or tariffs increased tanker demand in some lanes. Higher freight costs can affect the delivered price of crude, which in turn influences prompt price levels for regional grades. Traders who monitor freight and refinery news often spot early indicators of regional supply and demand imbalances.

Risk scenarios and the outlook

Looking forward, the market faces a few clear scenarios. In a mild case, OPEC+ additions continue to outpace demand, inventories rise, and Brent drifts lower toward the low $60s. In a second scenario, renewed regional conflict or a significant refinery outage tightens supply and pushes Brent above $75. In a third, demand surprises from China or transport rebounds lift prices modestly while OPEC+ holds steady.

For spread bettors, the second scenario offers the most enormous asymmetric opportunity. Political shocks can create fast, significant moves that reward nimble positions. The first scenario requires discipline to fade rallies and to respect longer holding costs.

Risk management and execution tips

Risk management remains the most critical edge. Use position sizing that limits any single trade to a small percentage of capital. During headline events, widen stops slightly to avoid being stopped out by noise, but don’t leave them so wide that a single move wipes out gains.

Also consider correlated hedges. A short position in a Gulf equity index or a commodity-linked FX pair can provide downside protection when oil rallies. Options strategies can also limit downside risk while allowing upside participation.

Finally, maintain a news checklist. Key items include developments in Ukraine, statements from OPEC+, inventory releases, China’s demand data, and tariff diplomacy. Mark these events on your trading calendar and adjust exposure ahead of known catalysts.

Summary and actionable takeaways

The week from August 24–31, 2025, demonstrated that a seemingly calm Brent market still presents clear trading opportunities. Prices ranged within a tight band, yet each headline created short windows of volatility. OPEC+ supply policy capped upside. Geopolitical risks continued to drive up prices. Seasonal demand softness limited sustained rallies, while regional demand pockets provided intermittent support.

Actionable trading points:

• Treat $67.50–$67.70 as a key support band for dip buying.
• Watch $68.50–$68.70 as resistance and a zone to trim longs.
• Use cross-asset signals from equities and FX for confirmation.
• Manage risk with tight stops and conservative sizing ahead of major news events.

For spread-betting traders, the market rewarded those who prepared. Respect the range, monitor headlines, and lean into clear technical setups. If you’d like, I can build an intraday levels sheet, a watchlist of correlated assets, or a short checklist of news triggers to monitor next week.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.