Trading Update 22nd February 2026

Why Brent Crude Tested $70 This Week

The oil market delivered another volatile week between 16th and 22nd February 2026. Brent Crude reacted to supply headlines, shifting demand forecasts and renewed geopolitical tension. Traders saw sharp intraday swings as risk appetite changed quickly.

Brent Crude started the week close to $71 per barrel. Early trading pushed prices towards $73 as supply risks returned to the forefront. Midweek selling then dragged prices back below $70. By Friday, Brent stabilised near $70.80, ending the week only slightly higher but after wide swings.

Spread bettors had plenty of opportunity. The range between $69.20 and $73.40 created strong short-term trading setups. Let’s break down what moved the oil market this week.

Brent Crude Price Action and Key Technical Levels

Brent opened Monday with bullish momentum. Buyers defended the $70 support area with conviction. That level now holds psychological importance. Once prices cleared $72, short covering accelerated the move higher.

Wednesday brought a reversal. Profit-taking emerged near $73.50, which served as firm resistance. Sellers gained control after US inventory data showed a surprise build. Brent slipped below $71 and briefly tested $69.20.

The $69 zone now acts as near-term support. A sustained break below that level could invite further selling towards $67. On the upside, traders now watch $73.50 and $75 as the next resistance areas. Momentum remains fragile but balanced.

US Inventory Data and Demand Signals

Midweek inventory figures shaped sentiment. US crude stocks rose more than analysts expected. Refinery utilisation dipped slightly as the maintenance season approached. That combination pressured prices on Wednesday afternoon.

Gasoline inventories fell modestly, which limited the downside. Distillate stocks also declined due to strong export demand. Traders weighed these mixed signals carefully.

Economic data added another layer. US retail sales slowed slightly, raising concerns about fuel demand growth. However, manufacturing activity improved, supporting industrial energy use.

China also released updated import data. Crude imports remained steady but not spectacular. Traders expected stronger buying ahead of spring demand. The muted figures tempered early bullish momentum.

OPEC+ Strategy and Production Signals

OPEC+ remained central to market direction. Several member nations reiterated their commitment to existing production targets. However, rumours surfaced that some producers may seek modest output increases later this year.

Saudi Arabia signalled a cautious stance. Officials stressed the need for market stability and price discipline. That message supported prices early in the week.

Russia’s export data drew attention. Reports suggested stable flows despite ongoing sanctions. Traders remain sensitive to any disruption risk from the region.

Speculation about the next OPEC+ meeting kept volatility elevated. Even without concrete changes, traders priced in uncertainty. Brent responded quickly to each headline.

Geopolitical Developments and Supply Risk

Political tension in the Middle East returned to the spotlight. Diplomatic disputes escalated between regional players. Markets reacted to the possibility of supply disruption, even though no physical outages occurred.

Shipping routes through key maritime corridors remained open. However, insurers reportedly increased premiums for vessels operating in high-risk areas. That raised concerns about transport costs and logistical delays.

Eastern Europe also contributed to uncertainty. Energy infrastructure remained a sensitive topic. Any threat to pipelines or export terminals can quickly move prices.

In North America, policy debate around strategic petroleum reserves resurfaced. Lawmakers discussed potential replenishment strategies. Traders assessed how that might affect future supply dynamics.

Geopolitical risk added a modest premium to Brent this week. The market responded to potential threats rather than confirmed disruptions.

Impact on Energy Stocks and Broader Markets

Energy stocks mirrored Brent’s swings. Early gains lifted major oil producers and service companies. Share prices rose between 2 and 4 percent on Monday and Tuesday.

Midweek weakness trimmed those gains. Investors rotated briefly into defensive sectors as oil retreated. Mining and utilities saw modest inflows.

The FTSE 100 benefited from its heavy energy weighting. Oil majors supported the index during Brent’s rally. When crude softened, the broader market also eased slightly.

In the US, shale producers faced pressure when prices dipped below $70. Investors questioned profitability at lower price levels. That sensitivity highlights how closely equity markets track crude movements.

For spread bettors, energy equities offered clear correlation trades alongside Brent futures.

Currency Moves and the US Dollar

Currency markets also influenced oil. The US dollar strengthened midweek after upbeat labour market data. A firmer dollar often caps commodity rallies. Brent felt that pressure during Wednesday’s pullback.

The euro and pound traded in relatively tight ranges. European growth data remained steady but uninspiring. Currency stability reduced volatility from that side.

Emerging market currencies showed more movement. Some oil-importing nations saw weaker currencies, which increases local fuel costs. That dynamic can dampen demand over time.

Traders continue to closely monitor dollar strength. Sustained dollar rallies tend to challenge oil bulls.

Macro Sentiment and Risk Appetite

Broader market sentiment shifted several times this week. Equity indices moved between risk-on and cautious modes. Oil responded accordingly.

When investors embraced risk early in the week, crude rallied. As yields climbed and inflation concerns resurfaced, caution returned. Oil followed the change in tone.

Bond yields rose slightly in the US and Europe. Higher yields can weigh on economic growth expectations. Slower growth often means softer oil demand forecasts.

Despite that backdrop, global recession fears remained muted. Most data pointed to moderate expansion rather than contraction. That kept downside pressure contained.

What Spread Bettors Should Watch Next

The $70 level is now a key pivot. Holding above it keeps short-term sentiment neutral to positive. A decisive break lower may attract fresh sellers.

Watch US inventory trends carefully. Spring refinery maintenance could distort weekly figures. Look at product stocks alongside crude builds.

Keep an eye on OPEC+ communication. Any hint of production adjustments will move the market quickly. Monitor geopolitical headlines, especially those related to transport routes.

Currency moves also matter. A stronger dollar could limit further gains. Meanwhile, improving Chinese import data would support the demand narrative.

Energy stocks often lead or lag crude moves by a session. That relationship can provide useful signals.

Final Thoughts on Brent Crude Direction

Between 16th and 22nd February 2026, Brent Crude traded in a wide but controlled range. Supply concerns supported prices early. Inventory builds, and dollar strength pressured them midweek.

Geopolitical tension added a modest risk premium. OPEC+ discipline kept deeper declines in check. Energy equities reflected crude’s volatility but avoided heavy losses.

The oil market now balances stable supply against uncertain demand growth. Traders should expect continued volatility as spring approaches. Clear technical levels and disciplined risk management remain essential in this environment.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.