Trading Update 28th September 2025

Brent Crude Hits $69 Before Sliding on Fresh Supply Flows

The week beginning 21 September delivered a period of mixed signals and volatility for the oil market. Supply news, inventory surprises, and geopolitical shifts all nudged sentiment back and forth. Traders juggled concerns about excess supply with fresh signs of strain in specific regions. As always, demand expectations and macro risks played a strong role.

By midweek, Brent crude saw a sharp jump, before slipping again toward the end of the week. The movement echoed the tug of war between supply headwinds and bullish technical or event-driven catalysts. Global equities, energy stocks, and commodity markets generally responded in kind, with ripple effects across sectors sensitive to energy costs.

Below, we break down the key drivers, Brent price movements, stock market impacts, and political dynamics that shaped oil pricing over the seven days.

Brent Crude Price Movements

At the start of the period, Brent was trading in the mid-$60s per barrel range. According to historical data, Brent crude oil closed near US$66.14 on September 21. (Note: daily spot price data shows Brent around $66.14 on that day.)

By September 24, oil prices surged on a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories. Brent futures rose $1.68 (or ~2.5 %) to close at $69.31. This marked a seven-week high, driven by concerns that supply could tighten.

However, gains were partially eroded by renewed expectations of supply. On 23 September, a deal was reached between Iraq’s federal government and its Kurdistan region, allowing the resumption of the pipeline via Turkey. This move added up to ~230,000 barrels per day back to flows, dampening bullish sentiment.

Later in the week, oil prices drifted downward—reports of resumed Kurdish crude exports, along with predictions of additional OPEC+ output increases, put pressure on prices. By the close of the week, Brent had slipped back as markets rebalanced their positions.

Overall, the week’s peak near $69.30 gave way to moderate pullbacks as supply concerns reasserted themselves.

Key Drivers and Market Catalysts

U.S. Inventory Surprise

The catalyst for midweek strength was the unexpected drop in U.S. weekly crude inventories. This surprised the market and suggested tighter fundamentals at that moment. The drawdown helped boost confidence among bulls.

However, the euphoria was tempered by forecasts of rising output in major producing regions and doubts about the sustained strength of demand. Thus, the inventory surprise had only a temporary boost effect.

Restart of Kurdish Exports

One of the significant supply developments was the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The pipeline to Turkey, which had been offline for years, reopened with resumed shipments of up to 230,000 barrels per day. This additional supply weighed on trader sentiment, especially amid concerns of global oversupply.

OPEC+ Output Strategy

OPEC+ contributors signalled plans to hike production in November by about 137,000 barrels per day. Given that many members were already underproducing versus their quotas, this intention fueled market concerns about future supply overhang. Some analysts cautioned that the group would “lean into” stronger prices by easing cuts.

Saudi Arabia also indicated it would raise its official selling prices to Asia for November, pushing its margins upward. Still, that move looked constrained by the broader supply picture.

Geopolitical and Regional Risks

While supply concerns dominated, geopolitical tension still mattered. The conflict in Ukraine continued to affect energy flows, especially via drone attacks, turning off Russian refinery capacity. That disruption supported margin strength for refiners, but its effect on crude supply was more indirect.

Middle Eastern stability, sanctions on Iran, and potential shifts in Russian export strategies remained in the background, keeping a risk premium in play.

Macro and Dollar Influences

Oil is sensitive to global risk appetite, inflation expectations, and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Over the week, rates and growth forecasts were watched closely. A firmer dollar tends to pressure dollar-priced commodities, including oil.

Also, broad equity moves and shifting sentiment around interest rates influenced speculative positioning in oil futures.

Impact on Stocks and the Energy Sector

Energy and commodity-linked stocks were volatile during the week as oil gyrated. When oil spiked midweek, energy names and oil producers gained momentum. Conversely, the price pullback later in the week weighed on sentiment.

Refining and oil services stocks, especially those in the Ukraine-Russia region, leaned heavily into the disruptions, with Russia’s refining pipeline capacity challenged by drone attacks. This dynamic expanded margins for non-Russian refiners, boosting investor interest in refining firms in North America and Europe.

Broad equities responded to concurrent macro cues. In London, the FTSE indices rallied as healthcare and mining names got momentum, helped by gold strength and easing concerns over U.S. interest rates. Stocks sensitive to input costs (industrials, transport) monitored oil’s direction closely.

In the U.S., futures climbed ahead of open after the stock market posted a three-day losing streak. Energy sector stocks mirrored the oscillations in oil itself.

Political and Policy Events Influencing Sentiment

Iraq-Kurdistan Agreement

The resumption of Kurdish exports was a result of a political agreement between Baghdad and Erbil. That was a significant policy change in a region whose supply disruptions often introduce volatility. The deal was key in shifting supply expectations.

Saudi Arabia’s Pricing Strategy

Saudi Arabia’s moves to raise crude selling prices to Asia revealed confidence in demand in that region. Their forward pricing adjustment, even if modest, signals intent to extract more substantial margins. That can also influence how producers in the other areas price and market their cargoes.

OPEC+ Decision Dynamics

Inside OPEC+, internal balancing acts matter. Some members have struggled to meet quotas. The plan to hike production in November arises amid pressure to capture share without destabilising prices. How key members follow through will affect longer-term sentiment.

Ukraine Conflict and Sanctions

Ongoing conflict in Ukraine, plus sanctions on Russia and Iran, continued to drive uncertainty. Disruptions to Russian refinery capacity due to drone attacks increased the risk premium on refined products. Traders also monitored how war dynamics could impact oil transit routes or lead to export constraints.

Global Energy Transition Pressure

In the longer term, energy transition goals and climate policies loomed as a backdrop. Some concerns have emerged over whether net-zero targets remain realistic. However, for now, near-term pricing was primarily driven by supply and demand, rather than the outcomes of structural transitions.

What It Means for Spread Betting Traders

For those trading Brent or energy CFDs, this week illustrated how fast sentiment can shift. Supply news (like Kurdish exports) can wipe out gains from inventory draws. Traders must monitor pipelines, OPEC statements, and geopolitical developments in near real-time.

Volatility can spike around inventory reports (EIA / API) or OPEC+ meetings. Risk control (stop losses, position sizing) remains essential. Additionally, correlating with broader markets—especially rates, equities, and the strength of the USD—can help refine your timing.

Brent’s range this week—from about $66 to a peak near $69.30—gives a sense of possible intraday swings. Those who caught the midweek rally benefited; those who stayed on the wrong side during retreat were exposed.

Watch for next week’s OPEC+ meeting outcomes, fresh supply developments from Iraq, Russia, and U.S. production trends.

In summary, the week of 21–28 September showed the fragile balance in oil markets. A surprise inventory draw lifted prices strongly midweek, while the resumption of Kurdish exports and planned OPEC+ hikes later cooled enthusiasm. Brent’s journey, energy stocks, and global equities all mirrored the push-pull between supply pressure and geopolitical risk. For your spread betting readers, the lesson is clear: be alert to supply surprises and policy dramas, and never assume direction is locked in.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.