Trading Update 20th April 2025

Brent Crude Rallies on Sanctions and OPEC+ Cuts: Weekly Oil Market Recap

Over 13–19 April, Brent crude futures rose from about $64.70 to $66.40 per barrel amid fresh supply concerns and OPEC+ pledges.
New U.S. sanctions on Iranian “teapot” refineries and Houthi‑related Red Sea risks supported prices.
Major banks cut their 2025 Brent forecasts, citing softer demand and rising OPEC+ output.
Energy stocks and oil‑linked currencies reacted positively, while U.S. inventories rose modestly.

Brent Crude Price Moves

On 13 April, Brent futures began near $64.70 as traders eyed U.S.–China trade tensions.
By 15 April, oil dipped to $64.67 on fears of slowing global demand growth.
Traders signed contracts on 16 April after Washington targeted Chinese importers of Iranian oil, pushing Brent to $65.85.
On 17 April, futures peaked at $66.40, their strongest level since early April, after Iraq and Kazakhstan pledged extra OPEC+ cuts.
This rebound delivered Brent’s first weekly gain in three weeks, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment.

Trade Tensions and Forecast Revisions

U.S.–China tariff talk kept oil markets on edge throughout the week.
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2025 Brent forecast to $63 per barrel, citing potential oversupply.
HSBC cut its 2025 outlook to $68.50, down from $73, on weaker demand expectations.
J.P. Morgan lowered its Brent estimate to $66, pointing to OPEC+ output and soft demand outlooks.
Analysts cautioned that sustained trade hostilities could push Brent toward the $40–60 range.

Supply Risks and Geopolitical Strains

On 16 April, the U.S. imposed sanctions on small Iranian refineries, tightening export routes.
That day, U.S. strikes on Yemen’s Ras Isa port aimed to curb Houthi fuel revenues, lifting risk premiums.
Houthi attacks had already disrupted Red Sea shipments, and strikes deepened shipping concerns.
Iraq and Kazakhstan each pledged extra production cuts to support prices, offsetting some over‑quota output.
Brazil’s Petrobras cut diesel prices for distributors amid local currency moves and lower crude costs.
Russia boosted oil product exports to Indonesia, seeking new markets amid Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, Israel’s plans for a potential limited strike on Iran added broader Middle East risk.

Market Reaction: Stocks and Inventories

Energy shares rallied as crude climbed, with Exxon Mobil surging 2.6% to $106.92 by 19 April.
Canada’s energy‑heavy TSX index also gained ground on stronger oil prices.
U.S. drillers added two oil rigs—the first increase in four weeks—signalling renewed confidence.
EIA data showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 515,000 barrels to 442.9 million barrels, driven by robust exports.
Gasoline inventories fell by 2 million barrels, while distillate stocks dropped by 1.9 million.

Outlook for Spread Bettors

Choppy supply‑demand signals will keep Brent volatile in the near term.
Key triggers include U.S. weekly inventory reports and OPEC+ policy announcements.
Technically, a clear break above $67 may target $70, while $64 offers initial support.
From Iran sanctions to Yemen strikes, geopolitical shocks can spark sharp spikes.
Strict risk management, tight stops and prudent position sizing remain essential amid this uncertainty.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.